2026 Special Report: Comprehensive Statistics on U.S. Tariff Stages and Industry Impact

[WASHINGTON D.C.] As of February 2026, the U.S. trade landscape has entered a period of unprecedented volatility. Following the recent Supreme Court rulings and the administration's swift pivot to emergency trade statutes, global supply chains are grappling with a "new normal" of high baseline tariffs.

The following report summarizes the statistical evolution of U.S. tariffs and their specific impacts across key industrial sectors.

I. Timeline: The Three Eras of U.S. Tariff Policy

• Phase I: Targeted Trade Wars (2018 – 2024): Primary Mechanism was Section 301 (China) & Section 232 (Steel/Alum). The Effective Tariff Rate (Avg) was between 1.5% and 3.0%.
• Phase II: Universal Expansion (2025 – Early 2026): Primary Mechanism was IEEPA-based Universal Baseline Tariffs. The Effective Tariff Rate (Avg) surged to between 16.9% and 20.1%.
• Phase III: The Legal Reset (Feb 20, 2026 – Present): Following the Supreme Court ruling, the primary mechanism shifted to Section 122 (Trading with the Enemy Act/Trade Act). The current Effective Tariff Rate (Avg) stands at approximately 13.7%.

Critical Update: Following the February 20, 2026, Supreme Court ruling that deemed universal tariffs under IEEPA unconstitutional, the administration invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. This imposes a 15% temporary surcharge for 150 days to address "serious balance of payments deficits."

II. Industry-Specific Impact Statistics (Q1 2026)

Data from the first quarter of 2026 shows a stark divergence in how different sectors are absorbing these costs:

1. Consumer Electronics & Technology

• Average Cost Increase: 18.2% on imported components.
• Inventory Status: "Front-loading" (pre-importing) in late 2025 has exhausted safety stocks.
• Retail Impact: Laptop and smartphone prices have surged by an average of $115 per unit since January 1st.

2. Automotive & Heavy Machinery

• Tariff Breakdown: Finished vehicles are subject to the 15% baseline, while specialized parts from specific regions face up to 25%.
• The "Double Whammy": Manufacturers are paying more for raw steel (up 14%) and finished sub-assemblies simultaneously, leading to a 3.1% contraction in domestic profit margins.

3. Retail & Apparel

• Hardest Hit Categories: Luggage and handbags (up 36.4%), footwear (up 32%).
• Supply Chain Shift: While 12% of production moved to Southeast Asia in 2025, the universal nature of the new 15% surcharge means these "alternative" sources are now equally taxed.

III. Macroeconomic & Fiscal Indicators

The following table outlines the projected impact on the U.S. economy for the 2026 fiscal year:

IV. Strategic Outlook

Industry experts suggest that the "150-day window" under Section 122 is creating a "waiting game" for investors. Many companies have paused capital expenditures (CapEx) until there is clarity on whether Congress will codify these tariffs into permanent law or if they will expire in mid-2026.

• Manufacturing Reshoring: While the policy aims to bring jobs back, the high cost of imported machinery is currently acting as a barrier to building new domestic factories.